Forecasters: Near average hurricane season expected

FORT COLLINS, Colo. – The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has released their annual spring forecast for the upcoming hurricane season.

The forecast, led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach with special assistance from Dr. William Gray, calls for a near average Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Alex has formed back in January, so the forecast below represents additional tropical activity expected in 2016 and does not include Alex:

2016 hurricane season outlook from Colorado State University, issued April 14.
2016 hurricane season outlook from Colorado State University, issued April 14.

El Niño, which has been present for numerous months, is weakening. La Niña conditions are likely to develop in the coming months. La Niña is a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that’s associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

The La Niña phase tends to correlate with less wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, enabling tropical systems to form more easily and maintain strength longer. Klotzbach believes the timing of the development of La Niña, along with Atlantic sea surface temperatures around the peak of the season will play large roles in the intensity of the season. The report states that until more is known about these conditions, the forecast remains highly uncertain.

This chart shows a computer model's forecast of an expected collapse of El Niño this summer.
This chart shows a computer model’s forecast of an expected collapse of El Niño this summer.


Full report from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s